According to a report by the NGO InfluenceMap, the number of electric cars currently in circulation is insufficient to limit global warming.
For several years now, the public authorities have been doing everything they can to encourage motorists to switch to electric, with a lot of incentives and restrictions of all kinds. The latest being the validation of the ban on the sale of thermal cars by 2035 throughout the European Union. The goal: to ensure that combustion vehicles disappear forever.
But will these measures, which are sometimes very strongly criticized by the general public, associations for the defense of motorists and manufacturers, be sufficient to reduce global warming? It may well not. In any case, this is the rather alarming observation made by the NGO InfluenceMap, which specializes in collecting data related to climate change. And we would even be very far from the mark.
Too little production
As a reminder, the objective set by the Paris agreements is to limit global warming to 1.5°. To achieve this, several means should be put in place, and in particular the reduction in the number of thermal cars, according to the NGO’s report. This points out that zero-emission vehicles should then represent at least 57.5% of total sales in 2030. However, according to forecasts, 68% of light vehicles produced by this deadline would still be internal combustion.
According to the organization, the main cause would be the builders themselves. According to data from the firm IHS Markit, they must increase their annual production of electric cars by 80% on average. Problem, only Tesla should meet this objective, while the brand only offers electric models. Apart from the American manufacturer, it is Mercedes that is doing the best, since forecasts indicate a 56% increase in sales of connected cars by 2029.
SUVs in the spotlight
On the other hand, and despite their lead on hybridization, Japanese manufacturers are bad students. According to the NGO’s forecasts, Toyota should only increase its production of electric cars by 14%, against 22% for Nissan. They seem to be more reluctant to offer 100% electric cars, favoring hybrid alternatives instead. In contrast, Chinese electric vehicle production is expected to grow from 12% in 2021 to 40% in 2029.
Finally, InfluenceMap deplores the craze for SUVs, deemed too heavy and polluting, even in electric. According to IHS Markit, the production of this type of vehicle should increase from 39% currently to 47% in 2029. The report underlines that the latter risk “cancel out many of the emission reductions associated with the increase in electric vehicles“.
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